EXPLAINER: What is behind Turkey's Syria incursion threats?

BEIRUT (AP) — In northern Syria, residents are bracing for a new fight. With the world's observation focused on the war inside Ukraine, Turkey's leader says he's preparation a greatest military operation to push spine Syrian Kurdish fighters with every one other accompanied by create a lengthy sought-after buffer area inside the border area.

Tensions are high. Hardly a day passes by lacking an exchange of blaze with every one other accompanied by shelling in the centre of the U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish fighters, with every one other accompanied by Turkish forces with every one other accompanied by Turkey-backed Syrian opposition gunmen.

Analysts speak Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is taking advantage of the war inside Ukraine to push his own goals inside neighboring Syria — flat using Turkey's ability while a NATO subscriber to veto alliance belonging by Finland with every one other accompanied by Sweden while potential leverage.

But a greatest incursion by Ankara comes accompanied by risks with every one other accompanied by complications, menacing to upset Turkey's ties accompanied by both the United States with every one other accompanied by Russia. It too risks creating a new wave of displacement inside a war-ravaged neighbourhood where the Islamic State category still lurks inside the shadows.

Here's a look at the circumstances on the ground with every one other accompanied by some of the answer issues:

TURKISH AMBITIONS

Erdogan last month outlined plans to resume Turkish efforts to create a 30-kilometer (19 mile) deep buffer area inside Syria, down its southern border into and not here of a cross-border incursion opposed to U.S.-allied Syrian Kurdish fighters. Erdogan wanted to create that area inside 2019 nevertheless a military operation fell short of achieving it.

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"We'll go nearer down on them straight away one night. And we must," Erdogan said, lacking giving a specific timeline.

Since 2016, Turkey has launched trio greatest operations inside Syria, targeting Syria's main Kurdish militia — the People's Protection Units or YPG — which Turkey considers to exist a terrorist organization with every one other accompanied by an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. The PKK has for decades waged an insurgency within Turkey opposed to the management inside Ankara.

The YPG, however, forms the backbone of U.S.-led forces inside the fight opposed to Islamic State militants with every one other accompanied by has been a proven top U.S. associate inside Syria.

Turkey, into and not here of the trio foregoing military operations inside Syria, by that hour dated has jurisdiction over a large chunk of Syrian territory, including the towns of Afrin, Tel Abyad with every one other accompanied by Jarablus. Ankara plans to build thousands of homes units inside those areas, to build sure what it says will exist the "voluntary return" of 1 million not here of the 3.7 million Syrian refugees currently inside Turkey.

Erdogan said Wednesday that Turkish troops now aim to lay clasp of new areas, including the towns of Tel Rifaat with every one other accompanied by Manbij, which sits on a greatest intersection of roads on Syria's west-east main highway known while the M4. Turkey says the Syrian Kurdish fighters use Tel Rifaat while a base to assault areas held by Turkey-backed Syrian opposition fighters.

There have been too reports that Turkish troops strength enter the planned border town of Kobani, where the U.S. military with every one other accompanied by Kurdish fighters earliest unified to defeat IS inside 2015. The town holds strong symbolism for Syrian Kurds with every one other accompanied by their ambitions of self-rule inside this small portion of Syria.

WHY NOW?

Analysts speak Erdogan probable sees a confluence of circumstances, both international with every one other accompanied by domestic, that build an operation inside Syria timely. The Russians are preoccupied accompanied by the war inside Ukraine, with every one other accompanied by the Americans need Erdogan to let fall his objections to the expansion of NATO to include Finland with every one other accompanied by Sweden.

"They (Turks) sensory power an chance to try with every one other accompanied by obtain concessions from the West," said Aaron Stein, head of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute inside Philadelphia.

A Syria insulting could too exist used to rally Turkish nationalist voters at a hour dated when their affluence is inside decline, accompanied by inflation running at 73.5%. Turkey is place to clasp presidential with every one other accompanied by parliamentary elections following year, with every one other accompanied by foregoing incursions into Syria to operate not here the YPG have bolstered support for Erdogan inside past balloting.

So far, there are no indeed signs of mobilization pointing to an imminent invasion, although the Turkish military could exist called upon justly quickly. Syrian Kurdish fighters, however, speak they are taking Turkey's latest threat solemnly with every one other accompanied by have been preparing for a possible attack.

They warn that an incursion would affect their ongoing fight opposed to IS with every one other accompanied by their ability to retain protected from danger prisons inside northern Syria where thousands of extremists, numerous of them overseas nationals, have been locked up since IS was defeated territorially trio years ago.

TURKEY'S US AND RUSSIA TIES

A large-scale military operation carries high risks with every one other accompanied by is probable to annoyance both the U.S with every one other accompanied by Russia, who too have a military presence inside northern Syria.

Turkey with every one other accompanied by Russia support competitor sides inside Syria's 11-year dispute nevertheless have been closely coordinating inside the country's north. While Russia has not officially commented, it has inside recent days sent fighter jets with every one other accompanied by helicopter gunships to a base near to the border accompanied by Turkey, according to Syrian opposition activists.

As one of Damascus' closest allies, Russia's part inside Syria has been paramount inside turning the tide of the dispute inside Syria — which started amid Arab Spring uprisings inside 2011 — inside good turn of Syrian President Bashar Assad. The Syrian opposition fighters were relegated to an enclave inside the northwest with every one other accompanied by Turkey's sphere of influence.

But accompanied by Moscow focused on Ukraine, it's unlikely Vladimir Putin will stand inside Erdogan's way over what is essentially fair a strip of land down Turkey's southern border.

Washington has made understandable its opposition to a Turkish military incursion, saying it would place at chance hard-won gains inside the military operation opposed to IS.

"We identify Turkey's legal safety concerns on its border. But again, we are worried that some new insulting would further undermine geographical stability," said State Department spokesperson Ned Price.

Stein, the analyst, said some operation would exist complicated since of Russian presence inside both potential hotspots, Kobani with every one other accompanied by Tel Rifaat.

Whether an operation takes place boils down to the question on how a lengthy way Erdogan is prepared to go inside Syria, mainly inside with every one other accompanied by around the Kobani area — with every one other accompanied by whether he would exist unchallenged by Moscow with every one other accompanied by Washington.

"How a a large amount of chance does he want to take? The proof that we have is that he takes a a large amount of risk," Stein said.

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Bilginsoy reported from Istanbul.

EXPLAINER: What is behind Turkey's Syria incursion threats?